Display Technology Trends – SID Display Week 2025 Business Conference

The SID Business Conference took place during Display Week in May 2025 and covered all the key market segments for displays. Ross Young, VP of Counterpoint Research (Ross has announced his retirement recently), gave an in-depth presentation about the market and technology trends in TV, smartphone, automotive, and IT displays with forecasts for the future. Presentations from display industry executives and Counterpoint Research’s analysts at the Business Conference also gave detailed information about current and future trends.

According to Ross’s keynote presentation:

Display Revenues Rebounded in 2024 – Up 11%

• OLEDs rose 17% in 2024 to $46B while LCDs rose 7% to $83B.
• OLEDs rose 9% from 2021 on rapid growth in monitors, tablets, AR/VR, and automotive.
• LCDs fell 32% on lower prices and units.
• Only automotive grew over this period for LCDs.

Display Revenues by Technology:

• 1% CAGR forecasted from 2024 to 2029 to $137B. Tariffs are slowing down the 2025 market after 11% growth in 2024.
• LCDs flat on loss of share to OLEDs. Market share only expected to fall from 64% to 61%, helped by MiniLEDs and 85″+ TVs.
• OLEDs expected to grow at a 3% CAGR to $53B and a 39% share, up from 36%, on gains across most applications.
• MicroLEDs expected to see >100% CAGR but only expected to see a 0.5% share in 2029.

Display Revenues by Application:

• Mobile phones and TVs to remain the 2 largest applications, but losing share to most other segments which are experiencing faster OLED growth.
• Automotive is expected to overtake laptops in 2025 and monitors in 2026 to become the #3 category, rising at an 8.5% CAGR on gains by LTPS, OLEDs, and MiniLEDs.
• AR/VR to enjoy the highest growth at a 13% CAGR.
• IT markets expected to maintain a 26% share.

Display revenue shares by application (Source: Counterpoint Research)

Richard Kim, SVP of BOE Tech, said in his keynote presentation, “Empowering IoT with display drives premium growth, and 68% of IoT devices have displays.” BOE, the leading LCD supplier, is continuing to develop high-end LCD technology (ADS Pro) solutions and using AI+ for image quality refinement of the display. Eric Cheng, CEO of Tianma America, in his keynote presentation discussed how generative AI is driving changes across the industry, especially in automotive. ChatGPT and DeepSeek are already being used in many cars.

OLED Technology Adoption – Needs Manufacturing Scaling

Indrajit Lahiri, Corporate VP of Applied Materials, presented in his keynote, “OLED is primarily adopted in smartphones which have small screens and high ASPs. Breakthrough in OLED scaling is needed to bring OLED to additional markets.” He pointed out that FMM has challenges for small PDL (pixel definition layer) which is needed for higher aperture ratio, and lithography process can deliver it. Applied Materials has introduced MAX OLED solution, a maskless patterning solution using lithography which can enable higher aperture ratio resulting in more than 30% power saving, cost reductions, and design flexibility. It can enable faster time to market as FMM lead time is in months vs. photomask lead time in weeks.

OLED has been gaining only modest unit shares in the IT applications. Cost has been a big challenge. OLED suppliers are planning to shift from Gen 6 to higher Gen 8.7 fabs to lower costs.

As Ross pointed out in his presentation:

• FMM VTE suppliers can only build two 7.5K/month tandem tools per year, so the industry’s ramp will be slow as well as expensive.
• FMMs haven’t been scaled beyond ½ G6 due to sag issues. ½ G8.7 involves a 116% increase in FMM size.
• Photo patterning eliminates FMMs and FMM VTE equipment at G8.7.
• JDI and Visionox, SDC is getting an alpha evaporation system from AMAT in mid-2025 to evaluate this technology.

Suppliers are now considering photo lithography patterning technology. It has the potential to be used for all applications from MicroOLED to large TV; it could also scale up to Gen10.5 fab. New manufacturing processes will take time to scale and improve yields to reduce costs.

Smartphone – OLED Dominant & Growing, LCD Losing Share

The evolving US tariff situation is impacting smartphone market outlook. Gerrit Schneemann, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research, said that “Global smartphone shipment outlook for 2025 was lowered from 4% growth to 1% decline. The primary driver for this decline is the anticipated lower volume in the US.” The situation has reignited efforts to diversify manufacturing away from China. As per Ross Young’s presentation, Smartphone Display Shipments trends:

• LCDs were down 25% in 2024, losing significant share to rigid OLEDs. Premiumization has contributed to reduced interest in LCDs. LCDs are moving away from LTPS to a-Si for cost reasons.
• OLEDs now at a 65% share.
  • Rigid OLEDs rebounded in 2024, up over 50% Y/Y, as Samsung shifted much of its LCD volume to rigid OLEDs.
  • Flexible also enjoyed strong growth in 2024 and should gain share in 2025 as Apple shifts SE volume from LCD to OLED and all flagships continue to use flexible.
  • Foldables stall and should decline the most in 2025. Apple’s entry in 2026 will be a major catalyst.
• Flexible OLEDs remain one of the hottest areas of the display market, rising at least 25% Y/Y in 4 of the past 5 years.